Buacus Bill by the Numbers. Again.

The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) has announced its latest round of what it calls a preliminary analysis of the Senate Finance Committee Chairman’s mark for the America’s Healthy Future Act of 2009. This analysis has been much anticipated as it  incorporates the amendments that have been adopted to date by the Senate Finance Committee.

The CBO had previously released an estimate on September 16, based on the Chairman’s Mark of the bill prior to amendment. At that time I listed out the key numbers surrounding what was then the plan.

Below, I have added the latest set of numbers, and where possible, left the previous number as a point of reference.

$829 billion up from $774 billion – the estimated credits and subsidies to be provided through the insurance exchanges, increased net outlays for Medicaid and the Children’s Health Insurance Program (CHIP), and tax credits for small employers.

$201 was $215 billion – the revenues expected from the excise tax on high-premium insurance plans.

$110 billion net net savings from other sources.

$404 billionthe combination of other spending changes.

$196 billion – projected increase in federal revenues.

$518 billion was $500 billion – the projected net cost over 10 years for the proposed expansions in insurance coverage.

$81 billion was $49 billion – the estimated net reduction in federal budget deficits of over the 2010–2019 period.

29 million was 29 million – The number of uninsured nonelderly people who would have coverage by 2019.

25 million was 25 million – the number of nonelderly residents who would still not be insured by 2019 (about one-third of whom would be unauthorized immigrants).

14 million was 11 million – the projected increase in the number of enrollees in Medicaid and CHIP.

Fuzzy math

I noticed that the math in this latest projection has become a bit more fuzzy that it was on the previous estimate when it come to the savings/revenue generators in this version.

In the previous analysis the additional savings/revenues were broken out as follows:

$20 billion – the estimated penalty payments made by uninsured individuals.

$27 billion – the estimated penalty payments to be made by employers whose workers will receive subsidies via the exchanges.

$12 billion – the estimated indirect effects on federal revenues associated with the expansion of federally subsidized insurance.

This time, the CBO Director lumped these numbers into some broader categories as follows:

$110 billion net net savings from other sources.

$404 billionthe combination of other spending changes.

$196 billion – projected increase in federal revenues.

Senator Max Baucus may have gotten the overall number that he was looking for, but it has become more difficult to see how the numbers add up. However, the Director did point out that the CBO and JCT’s analysis is preliminary in large part because the Chairman’s mark, as amended, has not yet been embodied in legislative language. Let’s hope that happens soon.

Source: Congressional Budget Office.

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